NFL Scouting Combine Reaction

Over the past week I’ve heard a lot of talk about the combine, much of which has been carried with a negative tone, downplaying the event’s importance as a gauge of NFL success and cautioning against reading too much into the numbers put up by the participants. While I understand and can appreciate the sentiment, I whole-heartedly disagree that the combine is “garbage” from the standpoint that I do believe it’s a valuable gauge of talent and tool for comparison. The combine is the lone event where you can judge 330 of college football’s brightest stars on a common stage. It’s the perfect science experiment in that it removes every conceivable variable in testing the draft’s best athletes and providing a basis of comparison between them; something that tape and individual workouts can’t provide.

However, as I mentioned that many have stressed, you have to be extremely careful not to read too much into the results at the combine. Though they’re about as accurate as you’re going to find for their respective drills, a 4.30 40 yard dash DOES NOT mean a guy’s going to rush for 1,000 yards, catch 10 TD passes, or be a shutdown corner. It means the guy’s fast as shit. Nothing more. Similarly, a 40 inch vertical means a guy can jump, 40 reps of 225 lbs mean’s a guy’s a strong weight lifter (not even that he has high, practical game strength), and a strong interview session means that the guy’s well schooled at answering the particular type of questions you asked. Just ask Al Davis who’s drafted Fabian Washington, Stanford Routt, Tyvon Branch, and most recently Darrius Heyward-Bey; all of whom have posted a combine 40 time among the top ten in the last decade and none of whom have had particularly illustrious NFL careers.

I’m a big believer that a draftee stands to potentially lose a whole lot more than he stands to ever potentially gain in the combine (independent of unexpectedly shattering a record or catching the eye of Al Davis anyway). A strong showing in all but the rarest of cases simply reaffirms or solidifies what scouts already thought of them and offers the opportunity to jettison a player ahead of others at his position that were considered more or less equals. At the same time a poor showing, most notably the dreaded slow 40 time, raises the proverbial “red flag”; a loathsome designation that has been known to lower a player’s draft stock up to and in some cases in excess of an entire round.

Such a risk/reward scenario begs the question: why should a highly regarded college player even participate in the combine with a lucrative NFL rookie contract on the line? Well, simply put, not everyone does participate. In this particular draft, none of the elite quarterbacks competed in much at all during the testing and drill phases of the workout. Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, and Colt McCoy who are widely regarded as the top 3 quarterback prospects in the 2010 draft participated in none of the physical aspects of the combine citing injury issues. Tim Tebow participated in some drills, but did not throw a pass (he’s retooling his throwing motion) and Clemson RB CJ Spiller participated in only the 40 yard dash. These players will get a chance to showcase their talents at their respective schools’ pro days: a more controlled (by the draftee, that is) and comfortable environment that generally produces more favorable results.

Although I admittedly did not have a chance to watch much from the defensive players since I was at work, I did dedicate 15 hours over the weekend watching the offensive players. Below are my reactions, positive and negative, to the most important things I noticed at each position from this week’s combine.

Quarterbacks

As I said before, there was limited participation from the QB’s. Bradford and Clausen remain as by far the two strongest at the position, with my personal favorite being Clausen who I’ve had a long standing man-crush on (and I hate Notre Dame – that should tell you something). Tim Tebow showed some impressive athleticism, which was far from unexpected. The most important thing I noticed about him came not from the drills, but from short clips of his new throwing motion. He holds the ball high which begs comparisons to Peyton Manning and has a lightning quick release relative to his old motion, which I was beyond impressed with. He’s done a lot to solidify himself as a solid 2nd round talent in my mind if what I saw in that small sample size holds up, when I’ve previously had him pegged as a 3rd rounder with the upside of #31 in the 2nd round (sorry Curtis Painter). The other important thing out of the combine for quarterbacks was the fact that Central Michigan’s Dan Lefevour neglected to participate in the throwing drills. The NFL Network crew chastised his decision to forgo the opportunity to stand out among the other 3rd-7th round QB’s and I couldn’t agree more. Lefevour had as impressive as anyone in MAAC history – a conference that has produced the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, and Chad Pennington – but you’ve got to wonder why he neglected this opportunity.

Running Backs

CJ Spiller showed an impressive 40 time, but he’s still nothing more than a great complementary back in my estimation, but that’s not even such a knock on him as the two back system is the way the NFL is headed. But the real development as far as backs are concerned is the manifestation of my new man-crush: Ryan Mathews. Ryan Mathews, Ryan Mathews, Ryan Mathews. I can’t say it enough, the Fresno State product is the real deal. He’s huge, bouldering, fast, strong; he’s got everything you could want in a back (with the possible exception of pass catching skills) and is the only guy in the draft that I could see shouldering a full NFL workload by his lonesome. I think Spiller probably did enough to maintain his status as the top back taken overall, but Mathews is now in my mind a sure first rounder in a draft where it’s really hard to find a team that really needs a franchise back (seriously – look at picks #10-32). I think Mathews now finds a home in San Diego, but I honestly would place him in the top 10 of all players in this draft. Did I mention that I like Ryan Mathews? I wanted you to get that out of this.

Wideouts

Golden Tate did a lot for himself in my mind. He put up great numbers, but moreover I thought his route running is what really separated him from the pack. Other guys that really impressed me are guys that are flying well under the radar: Missouri’s Jered Perry, Syracuse’s Mike Williams, and Kerry Meier. I like Perry and Williams as solid 2nd round selections and Meier as a day 3 (yeah, there’s now a day 3) steal that could possibly fill a role similar to that of Wes Welker. You can only compare white receivers to other white receivers, right? I got the feeling that this receiver class is extremely deep and there’s gonna be some significant producers picked in the later rounds of this draft.

Tight Ends

Pittsburgh’s Dorin Dickerson turned some heads with his 4.40 40 time. I don’t see him as a 1st rounder since he’s not a true tight end, but I see him nestling into the first part of the 2nd round. Cleveland makes a lot of sense – he fills the void left by the Winslow trade; a guy thats an adequate blocker at best, but lines up in the slot 80% of the time anyway so it doesn’t really matter. Just compare his speed to that of the linebackers in the combine – he’s a matchup nightmare, which is really the essence of the NFL. Former Hurricane basketball player and 5th year senior Jimmy Graham showed impressive athleticism, but it remains to be seen whether he’s a football player or just a physical specimen. The comparison to 2009 breakout star and former Texas tight end Jermichael Finley is easy. Finley turner out OK. While he’s not quite at the man-crush level, Clay Harbor really impressed me and I would be ecstatic about landing him in the later rounds.

Offensive Line

Bruce Campbell out of Maryland showed that he’s an absolute beast. Although there really wasn’t much of a chance of him slipping completely out of the 1st round to begin with, he solidified himself as a sure-fire first rounder and it’s conceivable that someone could take a flier on the guy early based on potential alone (see Al Davis). He’s plagued by “a lot of average tape”, which are not my words, but illustrate the conflicting relationship between raw ability and practical game skills. Another “raw” prospect, UMass-Amherst guard/tackle Vladimir Ducasse needed a combine like Campbell, but had exactly the opposite. He’s dropped way down in my rankings and his only reason for being anywhere near the first round to begin with was based solely on hearsay. I thought the top linemen (Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, and Anthony Davis) separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

Defense

Like I said, I didn’t get to personally watch more than an hour of defensive combine footage, so I’m not going to bore you with regurgitating numbers and adding insight on stuff I really have no original insight on. Reportedly, Taylor Mays had an awesome combine which sets the stage for a compelling debate on where the 3 elite safeties will fall: Eric Berry, Mays, and Earl Thomas. Joe Haden, far and away the top CB prospect, was largely underwhelming which puts serious doubts in my mind as to whether the Browns will take him at #7 (I apologize for so many Cleveland references, but it’s what I care about so deal with it) or whether they’ll go with a guy like Dez Bryant. This could really shake up the first round. Looking at the numbers alone, it looks like Boise State’s Kyle Wilson took a big step forward in the race to be the second CB taken, which is wide open. It seems that hybrid DE/OLB guys – the guys that fit well in that 3-4 OLB role – all competed as defensive linemen, which kind of skews those numbers.

Running Diary of the (not so) Super Bowl

12:25 – Pehler texts me to make some bets for him. On cue, I go on a betting spree and make 16 $10 bets including “What color of Gatorade will be dumped on the head coach of the winning team?” and Will Kim Kardashian be shown wearing a Saints shirt/jersey?” (my bets were Yellow and no respectively).

3:57 – Me: “Brad, which what’s your wireless network here?”
Brad: Tina’s Country Kitchen
Me: “:/…what’s the password?”
Brad: “Blunts and big hitters”

4:34 – My first two bets are not looking good. UNC has lost to Maryland and Northwestern is up big against Indiana with less than 2 minutes left. Oh well, I got odds. If Will Smith (DE for the Saints) wins the MVP I’m hauling in $250 – this is far from over.

6:09 – Starting to get impatient for the Super Bowl to start and am currently researching registered sex offenders in Indianapolis at familywatchdog.com. I’ve known about this site, but never looked into it before. What a fantastic resource!

6:20 – Take your time Carrie! I’ve got the over on a minute and 42 seconds…

6:22 – It’s gonna be close!

6:22 – Hold it!

6:23 – 1:48 by my count. Chalk one up for the home team! Man, that was fun!

6:27 – Introducing the HOFers. Emmitt’s cheesing like a 5 year old and was that a gang sign Jerry Rice? Heads! Bingo! I’ve got heads parlayed with a Colts win, so I’m half way there!

6:33 – 3 and out for the Saints to start the game. Colts have gotten quite a pass rush without blitzing. Impressive. If that continues, this isn’t gonna be much of a game.

6:42 – Colts were driving, that false start definitely hurt. Got some points though. Bud Light with the first good commercial, Snickers follows with another one. Also just zoned out and missed the Tebow commercial. Can’t complain about that.

6:50 – Colston just let one through his hands and it hit him right in the face. Too bad CBS didn’t have the tasing scene from The Hangover queued up…”IN THE FACE!”

7:00 – on 2nd & 10, Peyton sees pressure and audibles to a run. Addai, who’s looked awesome so far, runs for a 1st down. Just one example of how Peyton plays the position like no one else in the league.

7:01 – TOUCHDOWN, Garcon. The apartment erupted. What a throw! Lost the bets on Meachem or Dallas Clark scoring the 1st TD, but you’re not gonna win em all. For example, when you pick two different players to score the 1st touchdown.

7:07 – Big fan of the Bud Light autotune commercial. Doritos commercial right before it was the best they’ve had so far too. I think both have gotten 3 in and it’s still the 1st quarter. Oh to have that much money to throw away…

7:13 – Late hit call against the Colts for a completely legit hit on Reggie Bush. Horrible call. And on the very next play the Colts miss about 6 tackles on Pierre Thomas…

7:17 – Freeney with a huge 3rd down sack. You knew it was going to happen eventually. They’ve been getting solid pressure on Brees pretty much every play.

7:20 – Hey it’s Mark Sanchez on a commercial with some stupid sort of a CBS public service announcement talking about womens heart attacks! Oh how I wish his heart would stop beating…

7:32 – Huge play by Bethea, stopping the reverse for a 7 yard loss. That’s the second time the Saints have put that guard in motion too. Interesting formation. Saints respond though…

7:42 – Colts defensive stand is the biggest end of the first half defensive play in the Super Bowl since…James Harrison last year. Absolutely enormous stop for the Colts. At the same time, I think Trey Wingo has said it best; “and Sean Payton pushes the panic button.”

8:00 – Well, it’s halftime and the game is not going the way I thought it would to say the least. Bets that are looking good: Colts winning and the 3rd quarter being highest scoring quarter. Bets that aren’t: Will Smith winning MVP and the over (of 57 points) are looking awful. Can’t believe Kardashian hasn’t been on the screen yet.

8:13 – Worst halftime show ever. Not only is the music better suited for Super Bowl I, but I wagered that The Who’s guitarist (Townshend or something like that) would break his guitar, which I guess is something that he popularized. No such luck. In related news, the over/under for the number of times he would do his “windmill” move was 5.5. Yeah – pretty sure he executed that one ad nauseum. Throw me a bone here!

8:22 – Holt cow, another ballsy call by Sean Payton and a big momentum swing for the Saints. I can’t even imagine what was going on at the bottom of that pile…the refs practically needed pepper spray to get to the bottom of it!

8:27 – Saints TD. The Colts just looked defeated that entire drive. Weren’t expecting to have to play so early in the half I guess.

8:39 – Addai punches it in after an impressive drive by Peyton and Dallas Clark (and Addai too). It goes without saying that it was key that the Colts responded like that, especially given how few times they’ve had the ball so far.

9:13 – Ouch, Shockey scores. Colts defense doesn’t look like they’re in any shape to stop the Saints right now. Not looking good on the betting stage either. Real close play on the 2pt conversion…looks like the Superbowl is going to miss out on overtime once again.

9:19 – Nevermind, good challenge by Payton. Overtime is back in play, which is good for me because that’s basically the only way I’m going to come out on top in this one.

9:25 – After Peyton almost through a pick that probably would have ended the game, the Colts have been moving the ball nicely. LOT of tension in the room. Everyone’s living and dying with every play. Everyone seems to agree that this is definitely 4 down territory. This drive is going to be pretty significant in the “is Manning the greatest QB ever” argument.

9:29 – And right on cue, Manning throws a TD. Unfortunately, it was to the Saints.

9:40 – After this drive, there’s a surprising amount of optimism in the room…

9:43 – Game over, Saints win. At least it’s looking like my 3rd quarter bet will hold up. Horrible clock management to end the game, the Colts definitely should have called a TO before 4th down. Especially after using a TO after 2nd down – the only way they were going to get the ball back was on the onside kick. Classy move by Caldwell though in not using timeouts with Brees kneeling.

9:45 – Was that Gatorade yellow or orange? I’ve got 10 on yellow, but it looked a little to dark…

10:46 – Back home now. Just realized that I went the entire game without going to the bathroom, or really even getting up. I’m disappointed in the outcome of the game and I can only imagine how Colts fans are feeling (especially the ones that are getting DUI’s tonight – talk about a miserable day). I was pretty confident that the Colts would win this game, and my bets reflected that. Needless to say, I didn’t fair very well. To review:
Bet #1: What Color of Gatorade will be dumped on the head coach of the winning team? (Yellow @ -120)
Result: after my wishful thinking, it turns out the gatorade was, indeed, orange. Fail.

Bet #2: Coin toss result parlayed with game result (Heads for the coin toss, Colts win @ +170)
Result: Obviously the Colts did not win. I did get the coin toss right though. Fail.

Bet #3: Who will win Super Bowl MVP (Will Smith @ +5000)
Result: I don’t think Will Smith recorded a tackle, much less the multiple sacks and defensive TD he would have needed to have any shot at the MVP. Epic Fail.

Bet #4: Will either team score 3 straight times without the other team scoring? (No @ +130)
Result: This happened twice actually, so I wasn’t even close. Fittingly the 3rd scores came thanks to the onside kick and Peyton’s pick 6, arguably the two biggest plays in the game. Fail.

Bet #5: Highest scoring quarter (3rd quarter @ +300)
Result: Winner!! I was 3 yards from losing this one too as a TD on the Colts final drive would have made the 4th quarter the highest scoring. There’s $40 back at least.

Bet #6: Will Kim Kardashian be shown wearing a Saints Shirt/Jersey? (No @ -240)
Result: Actually, I don’t know – it’s still listed as pending on sportsbook. I never saw her on the screen and like I said, I was glued to the screen. The way it’s worded, I’d say that’s a win since she wasn’t technically “shown” wearing a shirt or jersey. We’ll see.

Bet #7: 1st player to score a TD (Dallas Clark @ +700, Robert Meachem @ +1500)
Result: Clark had a solid game, but I don’t think Meachem registered a catch in a game where his QB completed more passes than any other Super Bowl QB. Neither one of them, though, scored the 1st touchdown though regardless. Fail.

Bet #8: Will Pete Townshend smash a guitar on stage during the halftime show? (Yes, @ +130)
Result: I should have known better, the dudes like 80 years old. If only I’d have taken the over on the number of times he’d do his windmill move instead. Cest la vie. Fail.

Bet #9: Will the MVP of the Super Bowl be a QB? (No @ +300)
Result: I felt good about this one as it paid 3 to 1 and gave me every single player in the game but two. Unfortunately, Brees was one of those two. Fail.

Bet #10: How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem? (Over 1 minute 42 seconds @ -105)
Result: This was by far the most fun, and it was a winner to boot!

Bet #11: Over/under 57 points scored. (Over @ -105)
Result: This was never even close. The Saints milked the clock the entire game to the point that the Colts got 8 possessions, 4 less than average. Fail.

Bet #12: Colts favored by 5 (Colts win and cover @ -105)
Result: Let’s just say the Colts didn’t cover the spread…

How to Prop-erly Bet on the Super Bowl

Last year, $81.5 Million was wagered (legally) in Las Vegas on the Super Bowl, and that was the lowest total since 2004. Sure a good portion of that pool of money was bet on either the spread and the over/under, but if you think those traditional forms of sports betting are the only game in town during the Super Bowl, well, you’re way off. With the magnitude of the game, the exposure of the commercials, and all the other forms of hoopla, Super Bowl prop bets (or proposition bets) can be one of the most enjoyable features that the NFL’s premier game provides.

I haven’t bet heavily on the Super Bowl since 2007, the last time the Colts were in the Super Bowl, and while I put some money down on the generic bets, most of my wagers were on things such as total points in the first quarter, result of the coin flip, and how long it would take Billy Joel to sing the national anthem. Below is a look at some of my favorite prop bets for this year’s Super Bowl along with how I see them playing out. Hopefully it’ll help you take a casino, website, or your local bookie for a little cash this Sunday.

Bet #1: How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?
Over/Under: 1 min. 42 seconds
My take: When I took Billy Joel a few years back, I believe the over/under was around 2 minutes, 42 seconds and was based upon the exact amount of time he took to sing it at another sporting event. I chose the over, and knew I was dead when I saw rain in the forecast that Sunday morning. However, even in the rain, it took Joel nearly 2 ½ minutes to complete The Star Spangled Banner. I’m taking the over on this one, especially with only a 10% chance of precipitation according to weather.com.

Bet #2: Which Super Bowl commercial will have the highest USA Today Ad Meter rating?
Odds: Anheuser-Busch (2:3), Coke (13:2), Godaddy.com (8:1), Career Builder (8:1), Family First (12:1), Other (5:2)
My take: People like things that are new and don’t appreciate repetitive messages clogging their Super Bowl commercials. Anheuser-Bush and Coke are really going to have to do something special to take this home, and I think Career Builder’s got the best chance out of the rest. Family First (Tebow’s commercial) has a much better chance to be the worst than the best ad. I’m taking “other” on this one at 5/2 odds, with the thought that someone will come out of the woodwork with a great, impactful ad. My dark horse is Miller High Life.

Bet #3: Current NFL players arrested during Super Bowl Week.
Over/Under: .5
My take: This is a tricky one, especially given the history of the event, but both the Colts and Saints seem very businesslike and seem to have fewer “loose cannons” than their NFL peers. I’m taking the under on this one and if it misses, my money’s on it being a player that is not a member of either team in the Super Bowl.

Bet #4: Which side of the ball will the player that dumps Gatorade on the winning coach be from?
Odds: Offense (+140), Defense (-170)
My take: When’s the last time you’ve seen a skill position player pull this stunt? I can’t think of a time. That eliminates over half of the offense, which makes taking the defense a little more enticing even though this isn’t a 1 for 1 return on investment. Couple that with the fact that the offense is very likely to end the game on the field in a kneel-down situation, and I’m putting some safe money on a defensive player as the culprit.

Bet #5: Number of times Archie Manning/Eli Manning/Kim Kardashian will be shown on TV.
Over/Under: 2.5 (for all three candidates)
My take: These are all separate bets and it’s important to point out that this bet is live from kickoff to the final whistle, not for the entire broadcast. I’m taking the over on Kardashian, after my initial reaction was under, and strongly under. After flip-flopping, I feel pretty confident about this one for four reasons: she’s hot (and thus “TV-friendly”), if Reggie Bush makes any key play she’s a lock for getting on the screen, if Bush scores a TD there’s a great chance we’ll get a shot of her on replay before cutting to commercial, and if all else fails she’ll help keep the women in the audience involved. As for the Mannings, they’ll be in the same booth so the bets are tied together; you’re not going to see one without the other in all likelihood. I’m staying away from this one, but at gunpoint I’d take the under, but barely. I think that they’re old news after we learned that there was really no conflict at all in Archie’s mind between rooting for his son or his former team.

Bet #6: Which CBS show will get the most promos during the game?
Odds: Undercover Boss (1:1), CSI Miami (7:2), NCIS (4:1), CSI (5:1), Big Bang Theory (10:1), How I Met Your Mother (10:1), Two And A Half Men (14:1)
My take: This is as sure a thing as betting on the Super Bowl being played on Sunday. Undercover Boss is the only new show on the list, not to mention it premiers right after the game. CBS is going to make sure that’s not something you forget. It only pays 1 to 1, but I’d bet my last dollar on this one. As an added note, the first boss will be from Waste Management. Should be interesting!